Modeling the Transition to Advanced Fuels and Vehicles

Principal Objectives of the Project

This project developed the Transitional Advanced Fuels and Vehicles (TAFV) Model, and is now developing HyTrans, a model to study the Hydrogen Transition.
The principal goals of the Transitional Advanced Fuels and Vehicles Model are:

To account for the effect of AFV incentives/programs on vehicle supply behavior (vehicle diversity and price).

To account for the effect of early AFV incentives/programs on fuel demand patterns and fuel distributor behavior (fuel availability and retail price).

To determine the combined effect of these changes on the time path of household alternative vehicle adoption.

(Ford Taurus FFV) (Ford F150 BiFuel Propane Vehicle)

Model Features

Solves yearly, 1996 - 2010

US focus, urban and non-urban regions

Tracks the on-road vehicle stock by vehicle and fuel type and vehicle technology

Tracks sales of new vehicles in each year by vehicle and fuel type

Accounts for the impacts of fleet mandates on manufacturer, consumer, and fuel retail behavior

Estimates the costs and benefits of alternative scenarios

Possibly estimates the energy imports (?) and greenhouse gas emissions

Documentation and Reports

You can download papers and reports:

Understanding the Transition to New Fuels and Vehicles: Lessons Learned from Analysis and Experience of Alternative Fuel and Hybrid Vehicles, Paul Leiby and Jonathan Rubin, October 31, 2003. Presented to the Asilomar Conference, August 2003. Forthcoming in Hydrogen Transition, Elsevier, 2004.
Effectiveness and Efficiency of Policies to Promote Alternative Fuel Vehicles, Paul Leiby and Jonathan Rubin, November 17, 2000 (Revised). Presented to the Transportation Research Board, 80th Annual Conference, January 7-11, 2001. Forthcoming in Transportation Research Record.x
The Alternative Fuel Transition: Results from the TAFV Model of Alternative Fuel Use in Light-Duty Vehicles 1996-2010 (Final Report, TAFV Version 1), September 17, 2000, Paul Leiby and Jonathan Rubin (Adobe Acrobat format, 387K).
Analyzing the Transition to Alternative Fuel Vehicles, Project Progress Briefing, December 16, 1998, Paul Leiby and Jonathan Rubin (Adobe Acrobat format, 1083K).
The Production of Alternative Fuel Vehicles for CAFE Credits, Jonathan Rubin and Paul Leiby, Presentation at the Transportation Research Board Workshop on Air Quality Impacts of Conventional and Alternative Fuel Vehicles, A1F03/A1F06 Joint Summer Meeting, Ann Arbor, MI, August 2-4, 1998. (Adobe Acrobat format, 339K)
Analyzing the Transition to Alternative Fuel Vehicles, Paul Leiby and Jonathan Rubin Presentation to the Society of Automotive Engineers, 1998 SAE Government/Industry Meeting, Washington, D.C., April 20-22, 1998. (Adobe Acrobat format, 591K)
The Transitional Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Model, 1997, (Transportation Research Record 1587) Paul Leiby and Jonathan Rubin (Adobe Acrobat format, 117K).
Sustainable Transportation: Analyzing the Transition to Alternative Fuels, March 1999, (Asilomar Conference, August 1997) Paul Leiby and Jonathan Rubin (Adobe Acrobat format, 236K).
Basic model results: TAFV Version 1.0 Result Workbook (1392K zipped Excel 97 worksheet)
Recent model results: Oil Price Sensitivity Result Book